Too late to respond, too pressured to ignore? Path dependency and institutional change in the UK’s response to Russian hostile activities

Abstract This article examines the extent to which hostile Russian activities have shaped legislative, organisational, and policy-orientation change in the United Kingdom (UK). Employing a historical institutionalist framework, the study traces the progress of the UK’s response across two critical junctures, the murder of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 and the attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal in 2018, separated by an intervening period of accumulating pressures (2007–18) during which institutional path dependency absorbed repeated provocations without producing fundamental reform. Methodologically, the article combines event data analysis (ICEWS and POLECAT datasets) to identify these junctures with qualitative content analysis of parliamentary records (Hansard) to examine the institutional implications of these shifts. The study focuses specifically on hostile activities directed at or conducted within UK territory and institutions. The study finds that the UK’s institutional adaptation to Russian hybrid threats has been marked by strong path dependency, with responses often reactive, fragmented, and shaped by a continued emphasis on counterterrorism rather than state-based threats. Initial provocations failed to punctuate the institutional equilibrium, as economic interests and diplomatic pragmatism prevailed. It was only under mounting public pressure and advocacy from epistemic security communities that a tipping point was reached, enabling a shift towards more coordinated and enduring institutional reforms.