Populism, Ideology, and the Endorsement of Martial Law: A Conditional Relationship

Abstract As democratic institutions around the world confront rising authoritarian pressures, the imperative to understand when and how citizens justify illiberal governance has increased. This study investigates how ideological orientations condition the relationship between populist attitudes and public support for martial law, drawing on the unprecedented 2024 declaration of martial law in South Korea as a focal case. Using original, nationally representative survey data, we find that populist attitudes do not uniformly predict support for martial law; rather, their influence is fundamentally shaped by respondents’ ideological leanings. Among citizens with strong populist orientations, those on the ideological right exhibit a significantly greater propensity to endorse martial law, whereas their counterparts on the left display pronounced resistance to such authoritarian measures. These findings highlight the ideologically contingent nature of populist attitudes and show how populism can serve to either legitimize or challenge authoritarianism, depending on individuals’ ideological orientations.