When Is the Price of Analysts’ Disagreement Risk Positive?
Abstract
We provide robust evidence that the price of analysts' disagreement risk in the cross-section of stock returns changes sign over time; it's positive (negative) in periods of high (low) disagreement. We construct a general equilibrium model in which analysts have heterogeneous beliefs about aggregate earnings growth. The consumer does not trust either analyst fully and dynamically adjusts each analyst's weight, based on their performance. Each asset's risk premium depends on its exposure to (i) the market portfolio, (ii) aggregate earnings growth, and, (iii) a ``flight-to-safety'' factor. (i) decreases and (iii) increases with disagreement as investors choose lower cash flow beta assets during periods of high disagreement. We find support for such a flight-to-safety in the data.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Auditing
Earnings Management
Governance
Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Pages
- 1–88
- Publication date
- 13 May 2026
- Language
- EN