When Is the Price of Analysts’ Disagreement Risk Positive?

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Authors: Alexander David, A Farhat
Cited by: 0
References: 56

Abstract

We provide robust evidence that the price of analysts' disagreement risk in the cross-section of stock returns changes sign over time; it's positive (negative) in periods of high (low) disagreement. We construct a general equilibrium model in which analysts have heterogeneous beliefs about aggregate earnings growth. The consumer does not trust either analyst fully and dynamically adjusts each analyst's weight, based on their performance. Each asset's risk premium depends on its exposure to (i) the market portfolio, (ii) aggregate earnings growth, and, (iii) a ``flight-to-safety'' factor. (i) decreases and (iii) increases with disagreement as investors choose lower cash flow beta assets during periods of high disagreement. We find support for such a flight-to-safety in the data.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Auditing Earnings Management Governance Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Publication details

Journal / source
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Pages
1–88
Publication date
13 May 2026
Language
EN