The fragmented Arctic: Comparing Arctic security public opinion in Russia and the A7

Abstract The circumpolar Arctic region has undergone a major geopolitical transformation because of two external forces altering regional security: climate change and increasing great power competition, notably due to the Russian war against Ukraine. Underscored by the de facto suspension of pan-Arctic cooperation after Russia’s expanded invasion in February 2022, the circumpolar Arctic has fragmented into two distinct blocs: the Russian Federation and the Arctic 7 (A7) group of allied democracies. These blocs are informed not just by different security policies between Russia and its polar neighbours but by differing Arctic security public opinion among their populations. Drawing on an original dataset of 164 polls and surveys from all eight Arctic states taken between 2007 and 2024, we outline sub-regional patterns in security public opinion that demonstrate different attitudes between Russia and the A7 with respect to the two defining issues in Arctic regional security: climate change and great power competition between Russia, China, and USA. We find that climate change is universally considered the most serious security issue in the Arctic; Russia is widely seen as a threat to other Arctic states; China is not seen as a major threat nor as particularly relevant to Arctic security; and USA is strongly supported in all Arctic states but Russia. We also conclude that sub-regional analysis may offer clearer insights into Arctic security public opinion than pan-Arctic analyses.