Global prevalence of prolonged grief disorder during the COVID-19 pandemic under standardized diagnostic frameworks: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Prolonged grief disorder (PGD), recently classified in ICD-11 and DSM-5-TR, is characterized by persistent and functionally impairing grief lasting beyond 6–12 months. The COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by widespread mortality, social isolation, disrupted mourning rituals, and social disconnection, raising concerns about a potentially high burden of PGD during the pandemic period. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, following PRISMA guidelines and PROSPERO registration (CRD42023463720), to estimate PGD prevalence under standardized ICD-11 and DSM-5-TR diagnostic frameworks and to examine potential moderators during the COVID-19 pandemic. PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception to October 2024. Eligible studies included adults who experienced bereavement during the pandemic and were assessed using validated PGD instruments (PG-13-R, ICG, BGQ). Random-effects models were applied to pool prevalence estimates, with subgroup and meta-regression analyses. Thirteen studies comprising 5,766 participants were included. The pooled prevalence of PGD during the pandemic period was 24% (95% CI: 13%–36%), with the highest estimates observed in China (43%, 95% CI: 33%–54%). In the overall pooled analysis, studies applying DSM-5-TR criteria yielded lower prevalence estimates than those using ICD-11 criteria (18% vs.26%, p = 0.41). Digital interventions showed no statistically significant pooled effects (Hedges’ g = −0.38, 95% CI: −0.90 to 0.14). The high and geographically heterogeneous prevalence of PGD observed during the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the need to strengthen mental health surveillance, standardized assessment, and service accessibility in large-scale public health emergencies, and provides important evidence to inform population-level interventions and resource allocation strategies.