Time series analysis of new HIV diagnoses in France from 2012 to 2022

In France, HIV prevention measures including HIV testing, treatment, and uptake of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), have increased throughout the last decade. To analyse their impact, we performed a time series analysis of monthly HIV diagnoses reported via the national HIV surveillance database. In addition, we compared the timing of HIV promotional campaigns with monthly trends in HIV testing and PrEP initiation. From January 2012 to December 2022, new HIV diagnoses steadily decreased among men who have sex with men (MSM) born in France and heterosexuals born in France, whereas HIV diagnoses increased among MSM born abroad. HIV testing activity and PrEP use in France both steadily increased from 2014 to 2020, during which multiple campaigns targeting HIV testing and prevention occurred. The decline in HIV diagnoses among MSM born in France preceded the introduction of PrEP in 2016 and continued post-2016 without any acceleration in the rate of decline. Increased awareness of, access to and uptake of HIV prevention measures remain essential to progress towards HIV elimination in France, especially among MSM born abroad.