Excess mortality in Mainland China after the end of the Zero COVID policy: A systematic review

After the Zero COVID policy ended on December 7, 2022, ~90% of mainland Chinese were infected in a COVID-19 wave. This systematic review synthesized research estimating excess mortality during that wave in mainland China. We searched seven databases in May 2024 and updated our search in July-August 2025. Peer-reviewed research (Chinese or English), published since January 1, 2023, estimating excess deaths in the COVID-19 wave post-Zero-COVID was included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Two authors independently conducted abstract screening, full-text review, data extraction, and risk-of-bias assessment. Seven articles were included. Two studies analysed the death records of a town and a district in Shanghai, estimating the excess mortality rates of 153.6% and 174.3%, respectively. Using indirect methods, four studies estimated national excess mortality (range: 0.71-1.87 million). Another study estimated excess mortality in Taiyuan. Studies used diverse methods to estimate excess deaths, resulting in widely varying and uncertain estimates. Choice of reference period, seasonality, and other factors affect expected mortality estimates.