Deception Volcano (Antarctica): an example of advances on ground displacement surveillance in extreme and isolated environments using GNSS satellites

Abstract Deception Island is an active, caldera-forming volcano whose surveillance is critically constrained by its extreme Antarctic isolation, scarce resources and limited seasonal human access. This study addresses these challenges by presenting an innovative Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) geodetic surveillance framework specifically adapted for such a remote environment. Our approach establishes a key operational distinction between non-real-time monitoring and near-real-time surveillance via a semi-continuous wireless network. We effectively resolve the inherent trade-off between promptness and precision by applying signal enhancement methods (e.g. Kalman filtering) to maintain millimetric accuracy in deformation detection, even when utilizing the high sampling rates (1 Hz) essential for rapid assessment. The resulting model allows for the rigorous isolation of the local volcanic signal from the complex regional tectonic kinematics. Crucially, data analysis reveals recurrent 3 year cycles of inflation and deflation in the magmatic system, strongly correlated with seismicity, which validates ground deformation as a reliable volcanic precursor. The primary practical advance is the validation of a dual-term hazard forecasting system: 1) mid-term (months) forecasts based on long-term time-series analysis to facilitate safe inter-campaign operations and 2) short-term (days) forecasting during periods of unrest using ground displacement acceleration, complemented by a magma injection model to predict the spatial location of potential vent openings. This validated and technologically adjusted framework provides an optimized and transferable template for continuous geodetic surveillance in other isolated, active polar volcanoes.