Modelling the evolutionary dynamics of insecticide quantitative resistance in mosquito populations

Abstract Malaria remains a significant global health challenge, with sub-Saharan Africa bearing the majority of the burden. While vector control measures such as pyrethroid-based insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying have significantly reduced malaria incidence, the emergence of insecticide resistance in Anopheles mosquito populations threatens these gains. Resistance develops through genetic mutations under prolonged selection pressure, complicating control efforts and necessitating a deeper understanding of its evolutionary dynamics. This study introduces a novel mathematical framework to investigate the emergence and spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito populations. By modelling insecticide resistance as a continuous (quantitative) trait influenced by multiple genes, we capture its variability and evolutionary transient dynamics. We propose an age-structured mosquito population model using integro-differential equations, where the resistance trait influences life-history parameters such as mortality and reproduction. Our approach provides new insights into how resistance emerges and spreads within mosquito populations over time. We analyse the model’s properties, including the existence of a unique maximal bounded semiflow, and derive conditions for the existence and stability of steady states. Through parameterization and simulations, we explore the transient and long-term dynamics of resistance evolution under different scenarios. The results offer valuable insights into the evolutionary mechanisms driving insecticide resistance and inform the design of sustainable vector control strategies.