Time for a Re-Think? US-Russian Escalation and the Need for a New Deterrence Trifecta

change of narrative to Polish citizens; unfortunately, their knowledge about the threat of a nuclear attack by Russia is limited.Recent research conducted by the Public Opinion Research Center (Research Report No. 27, 2025) reveals that 61% of respondents believe that Poland can be confident in NATO's allies in the potential defense of our borders.However, 28% of respondents do not believe in this confidence.Compared to February 2024, the perceived confidence in NATO's assistance has decreased significantly by 18%, whereas those stating that it cannot be ensured has increased by 12% (Research Report No. 27, 2025).Time will tell in which of two directions the wide-scale changes will unfold: (1) the threat of Russia's use of nuclear weapons will be an exclusive component of the narrative of the state authorities aimed at deterring aid efforts by NATO countries toward Ukraine; or (2) an attack by Russian military forces using nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine will become a reality.It is also possible that the repercussions of certain strategic decisions could lead to a nuclear confrontation involving the NATO bloc itself.