Does universal conscription impose a civic penalty? Individual-level evidence from a randomized conscription lottery

Abstract Conscription has gained renewed relevance after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Beyond its military purpose, conscription has historically been linked to citizenship and may significantly influence civic outcomes. Drawing on classic arguments about the civic effects of conscription, alongside recent studies suggesting a negative impact on institutional trust and increased authoritarian attitudes, we investigate whether conscription shapes a broad spectrum of outcomes, including national attachment, prosocial motivation, trust, political preferences, political interest, and authoritarian attitudes. To test this, we use the Danish conscription lottery in combination with survey data, assessing the causal effects of peacetime conscription on these key civic outcomes at the individual level. The results indicate only limited effects, suggesting that peacetime conscription does not impose a general civic penalty. These results contribute to the literature on conscription and are relevant for debates in many European countries about its potential reintroduction.