No turning point? Suicide trends in Brazil and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted significant mental health impacts worldwide, with a major concern in the literature being its potential effect on suicide rates. Brazil, one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic, still lacks clear evidence regarding the consequences of the crisis on self-inflicted deaths. This paper aims to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates in Brazil. METHODS: We employed an interrupted time series design with seasonal adjustments to estimate changes in suicide rates per 100,000 population. The analysis was based on deaths from all forms of self-inflicted injury, as classified by the International Classification of Diseases. We estimated trends for the total population, stratified by sex and administrative region. RESULTS: > 0.05) showed no significant changes. Seasonal effects revealed consistent mid-year declines across all groups and regions. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic did not produce a statistically significant shift in national suicide trends but coincided with the persistence of pre-existing upward patterns in specific demographic and regional contexts. These findings underscore the need for targeted and region-specific suicide prevention strategies.