Quantifying the potential of digital innovations to advance circular economy in consumer and industrial goods

Abstract Non-Technical Summary Digital Product Passports (DPPs) could help make products easier to repair, refurbish, and recycle by improving access to information about their materials and life cycle. This study examines their potential across major European product groups, including heat pumps, solar panels, printers, ICT equipment, and batteries. For the EU27, we estimate that DPP-enabled improvements could raise circularity from 14.8% to 45.0%, with substantial material and economic savings. The results provide a practical baseline for assessing how digital tools may support the European transition towards a more circular economy. Technical Summary DPPs are expected to support circular economy strategies by improving information availability across product value chains. Building on the CE-RISE project, we assess their potential contribution to recycling- and refurbishment-related circularity for heat pumps, photovoltaic panels, printers, ICT equipment, and batteries. The analysis combines production and trade statistics, a PRISMA 2020-compliant systematic review, and evidence-informed scenario parameterisation. We construct material-flow and circularity indicators for Europe over 2010–2023, distinguish the EU27 from non-EU Europe (Switzerland, Norway, and Türkiye), and quantify a DPP scenario with sensitivity intervals. For the EU27 in 2023, baseline circularity is estimated at 14.8%, compared with 45.0% under the DPP scenario (95% sensitivity interval: 28.6–61.4). This corresponds to potential savings of 2.5 Mt of materials and EUR 27.9 billion (bn), with sensitivity intervals of 1.1–3.8 Mt and EUR 12.7–43.1 bn. We additionally estimate refurbishment-related employment exposure using Eurostat production value per employee in NACE J. The results establish an evidence-informed baseline for evaluating DPP-enabled circularity gains and future policy impacts. Social Media Summary DPPs could raise EU27 circularity from 14.8% to 45.0%, with major material and economic savings.