Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Inputs and Future Sustainability Solutions
Abstract
: 47.8%, uncertainty: 32.2-71.5%). Asia and Europe together account for 62.2% (uncertainty: 49.1-79.3%) of global NAPI (uncertainty ranges derived from Monte Carlo analysis). Feature importance and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis indicate that urban population density and GDP are the main driving forces for the increase of global NAPI. The RF model further projects future NAPI under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from 2025 to 2100, showing that NAPI in the Middle-of-the-Road Pathway (SSP2) and Regional Rivalry Pathway (SSP3) is 20.2 and 39.3% higher, respectively, than that in the Sustainable Development Pathway (SSP1). Optimizing nutrient management and enhancing nutrient cycling (such as reusing phosphorus from livestock manure and food waste composts) are key to improving phosphorus use efficiency and reducing global phosphorus pollution.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Phosphorus and nutrient management
Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics
Chemical Analysis and Environmental Impact
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Publisher
- American Chemical Society (ACS)
- Volume
- 60
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 12194–12206
- Publication date
- 13 April 2026
- Language
- EN