Future Drought Will Lead to a Decrease in Vegetation Resilience in China

Abstract The interactions between climate change and socioeconomic development have led to significant changes in vegetation resilience in response to drought in China. However, an understanding of the changes in vegetation resilience in response to drought events under different future scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) is lacking. Drought events are characterized via run theory, and the duration, severity, intensity, peak, and interval length of these events are extracted. In addition, in this study, vegetation resilience to droughts in China (1980–2100) and key drought characteristics are evaluated via a random forest model. The results indicate that future droughts will likely intensify, especially under the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. Notably, drought severity, drought duration, and peak drought intensification will be greatest. Drought duration in the Yunnan region will increase by 2–3 months, and the drought severity will increase by approximately 2. The historical and future gross primary productivity (GPP) resilience differs more clearly in terms of the east‒west spatial distribution compared to leaf area index resilience. Future climate scenario simulations (SSP370 and SSP585) reveal that compared with historical levels, the GPP resilience of various vegetation types typically will decrease, with the lowest resilience observed in the southwestern region. In the SSP126 to SSP585 scenarios, an increase in the duration and severity of drought will lead to a clear decline in the resilience of vegetation GPP in China. Therefore, promoting a sustainable development path is crucial for alleviating future drought stress.