Evolving Fire Frequency in the Western United States and Its Links to Human Influence

Read full text
Authors: Gavin D. Madakumbura, A. Park Williams, Karen C. Short, Max A. Moritz, Bowen Wang, Caroline S. Juang
Cited by: 3
References: 43

Abstract

Abstract Burned area and wildfire damages in the western United States (WUS) have increased dramatically in recent decades. Wildfire frequency, however, has shown trends that vary by data set, region, and fire size. Using a comprehensive fire occurrence data set screened for reporting artifacts from 1992 to 2020, we show a significant downward trend in annual fire frequency in WUS, with a significant contribution from decreasing human ignitions. Human‐caused fires significantly declined in California and Arizona, but increased in Wyoming. The relationship between human‐caused fires and population suggests a pyric transition, where fire frequency correlates positively to population in areas with very low population such as Wyoming and negatively where population is denser, such as in California and Arizona. Understanding the human influence on fire frequency trends beyond anthropogenic warming has strong implications for future projections of wildfire activity.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Fire effects on ecosystems Injury Epidemiology and Prevention Fire Detection and Safety Systems

Publication details

Journal / source
Earth s Future
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Volume
14
Issue
5
Publication date
30 April 2026
Language
EN