Reductions in Anthropogenic Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Drive Divergent Regional Impacts on Wildfire Risks in China Under Carbon Neutrality

Abstract Understanding the impacts of future emissions reductions on wildfire risk is critical for climate adaptation under carbon neutrality scenarios. Here, this study investigates how reductions in aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect wildfire risk across major fire‐prone regions in China by using the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Results show that wildfire risks under carbon neutrality vary regionally due to different climate drivers. Aerosol reductions can amplify wildfire risk, particularly in southern China by weakening atmospheric cooling and enhancing dryness. Conversely, GHG reductions lower wildfire risk by decreasing temperature and increasing precipitation. Although GHG‐driven risk reduction outweighs aerosol‐driven amplification, the balance between these opposing effects varies substantially by region, with northern and southern China exhibiting distinct dominant wildfire drivers under future scenarios. These findings highlight the complex interaction between emissions reductions and regional climate responses, underscoring the need for strategies to manage wildfire risk while achieving carbon neutrality.