Escalating Compound Drought‐Heatwaves and Demographic Shifts Threaten Simultaneous Global Breadbasket Failures

Abstract Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events pose a major threat to agricultural sectors worldwide. This study quantifies projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of CDHW events across major breadbasket regions. Historical CDHW occurrences (1982–2019) are compared with future projections (2020–2095) derived from eight CMIP6 climate models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. Results indicate significant increases in CDHW characteristics, particularly in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain and Central United States, where frequency and duration of events are expected to rise. High‐stress CDHW events affecting over 30% of global breadbasket regions are projected to become more common, with multiple (three or more) breadbaskets experiencing simultaneous stress, especially in Central Europe, North China, and the Indo‐Gangetic Plain later this century. Demographic shifts and rising food import dependency amplify global food security risks. The results emphasize the need for adaptive strategies to protect agriculture, supply chains, and future food security.