Evolution of Near‐Term Atmospheric Methane and Associated Temperature Response Under the Global Methane Pledge: Insights From an Earth System Model

Abstract Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with a shorter lifetime than carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), making it an important target for near‐term climate action. The Global Methane Pledge (GMP) aims to cut anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Using an Earth system model with interactive CH 4 sources and sinks, we assess the Pledge's impact through 2050. Results show that current GMP commitments deliver only a 10% cut by 2030—well below the target. Only the maximum technically feasible reduction (MTFR) pathway can achieve the 30% goal. By 2050, current GMP commitments lowers methane concentrations by 3% relative to 2025, while MTFR achieves 8%. Both pathways slow warming slightly, avoiding about 0.1°C of global temperature rise, with the Arctic seeing the greatest benefits (up to 2°C less warming). Without wider participation, the GMP with current signatories will fall short of its targets and Paris Agreement goals.