Drying Soil Moisture Dominates Enhancing Summer Soil Moisture‐Temperature Coupling Under Climate Change

Abstract Global warming enhances soil moisture (SM)‐temperature (SM‐T) coupling, exacerbating extreme climates. However, the mechanisms and future trends of this enhancement remain inadequately understood. Analysis of multiple reanalysis data sets shows that during summer seasons of 1981–2020, approximately 45.6% of global lands exhibit a significant intensifying SM‐T coupling trend, with hotspots in Northeast Asia, Central Asia, and southwestern North America. Ridge regression reveals the drying SM (contribution: 50.2%) dominates the enhanced SM‐T coupling, followed by greening vegetation (28.3%) and decreasing cloud cover (21.5%). Furthermore, pre‐summer vegetation greening has the effect of intensifying the summer SM‐T coupling. Despite discrepancies in climate models' simulations of SM‐T coupling trend, the optimal multi‐model ensemble mean well reproduces SM‐T coupling's spatiotemporal characteristics. Based on this multi‐model ensemble mean, the enhancement of SM‐T coupling is attributed to anthropogenic forcings and projected to further intensify under future emission scenarios.