A Unified Theory for the Global Thunderstorm Distribution and Land–Sea Contrast

Abstract This article evaluates Entraining CAPE (ECAPE) as a thunderstorm proxy in climate studies using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observations. ECAPE modifies traditional CAPE to account for the dependence of entrainment on the vertical wind shear, the lifted condensation level (LCL) height, and the properties of a cloud's surrounding atmosphere. ECAPE shows stronger pattern correlations with global regions of intense thunderstorms than previous metrics for updraft speed. In these regions, large CAPE, large shear, and high LCLs conspire to produce wide updrafts that are shielded from the negative effects of dry‐air entrainment. ECAPE more skillfully discriminates intense thunderstorms from their less intense counterparts than other metrics commonly used in climatology and climate change studies of thunderstorms. We provide evidence that the well‐known land‐sea contrast in thunderstorm intensity is a consequence of larger CAPE and higher LCL heights over land than over the ocean.