Wave Projections for the Northeast Atlantic Using High Resolution Surrogate Winds

Abstract Understanding projected changes in wave heights influenced by climate‐driven factors, such as wind, sea ice, and sea level are essential for mitigating risks and ensuring sustainable use of marine and coastal resources, especially in a highly energetic wave region like the Northeast Atlantic (NEA). With a particular focus on Ireland, wave climate in the Northeast Atlantic region is investigated using wave models, WAM (WAve Model) and SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). These are driven by high‐resolution surrogate winds, incorporating sea ice and sea level as additional inputs. The surrogate wind data is created by an analog method using high‐resolution wind data from the ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis data set to downscale data from the low‐resolution Max‐Planck Institute of Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM‐LR). This statistical approach provides computationally efficient and reliable wind inputs for wave modeling while capturing the temporal and spatial variability of present and future wind patterns. While the spatial distribution of significant wave height differences shows a north‐south gradient, with an increase in the northern Northeast Atlantic and a decrease in the south, regional variability is evident. Seasonal analysis indicates pronounced increases in wave heights during winter and summer, with the largest decrease observed in autumn. This study demonstrates the efficiency of surrogate wind data for downscaling climate model outputs to support nearshore wave modeling. The findings underscore the importance of considering both regional and seasonal variability in wave climate assessments for proper coastal planning and adaptation strategies under changing climatic conditions.