Seasonal Patterns of the Caribbean Current and Its Influence on the Small Island of Curaçao

Abstract Large‐scale ocean currents exhibit spatial and temporal variability that can influence local circulation patterns, particularly around small islands. Two distinct flow regimes were previously identified around the southern Caribbean island of Curaçao: (a) strong northwestward flow, and (b) cyclonic eddies or low‐energy conditions. Understanding these regimes is critical because they control coastal connectivity and the transport of land‐derived substances, including nutrients and pollutants, around coastal ecosystems. Given that water passing Curaçao is part of the broader Caribbean Current, this study investigates the temporal dynamics of flow regimes and their connection to upstream current variability. Using 32 years (1993–2024) of sea surface height data to calculate geostrophic flow fields, we perform an Eulerian analysis to identify seasonality in flow conditions around Curaçao, and Lagrangian particle tracking from the Grenada Passage to establish how the Caribbean Current connects to the local circulation. We examine forcing mechanisms by analyzing inflow strength through the Grenada Passage and wind patterns. Results show clear seasonality: strong northwestward flow during December‐February and June‐August corresponds to Caribbean Current flowing along Curaçao, while cyclonic eddies or low‐energy flow dominates September‐November, and mixed conditions occur during March‐May. Analysis of forcing mechanisms reveals that the cyclonic flow in September‐November is controlled by weakened wind and Caribbean Current transport, while March‐May variability is controlled by local or regional influences. We identify a decadal shift from bimodal to unimodal seasonality over a 32‐year period. These findings demonstrate predictable regime patterns that could improve conservation and pollution monitoring strategies around southern Caribbean islands such as Curaçao.