Assessment of Offshore Wind and Turbulence Prediction for the Northeast US Using a Three‐Dimensional PBL Parameterization in the WRF Model at Gray Zone Resolution

Abstract Offshore wind power plays a vital role in the expanding renewable energy landscape of the Northeast US. Accurate prediction of wind and turbulence is essential for optimizing the efficiency and reliability of offshore wind farms; however, boundary layer flows in the offshore environment can be complex. To address this challenge, our study uses an advanced three‐dimensional planetary boundary‐layer (PBL) scheme within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to predict hub‐height wind and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) for the Northeast US offshore region. We conducted a comprehensive evaluation of sub‐kilometric, gray‐zone mesoscale WRF simulations with measurements of hub‐height wind and TKE, buoyancy and wind shear taken at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution's Air‐sea Interaction Tower (ASIT). Our evaluation for different synoptic forcings, clustered based on self‐organizing map analysis, revealed a good agreement between the predicted and observed hub‐height wind speed, while the hub‐height TKE evaluation had mixed performance. TKE was generally overpredicted in stable conditions, especially for strongly forced nodes with predominant southerly flow. In contrast, the model performed well in weakly forced, northerly flow regimes, regardless of stability. The overprediction of TKE under stable conditions was linked to misclassification of atmospheric stability, a known limitation in stable boundary layer parameterizations.