Martian Surface Temperature Variability and Its Drivers During MY29–36 From MCS Observations and Climate Modeling

Abstract Surface temperature is a key component of the Martian climate system, modulating energy and momentum exchange between the atmosphere and surface. However, temporal shifts in the local time of Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) observations complicate comparisons of interannual variations. In this paper, we correct the observation‐time bias in MCS‐derived surface temperature records from Mars Years (MY) 29 to 36 using the Mars Climate Database. After correction, a statistically significant nighttime surface warming trend and tentative daytime warming are detected over the 8‐year period. A multiple linear regression analysis reveals that variations in atmospheric dust opacity are the dominant driver of surface temperature variability, with dust, albedo, and thermal inertia (TI) together explaining 45.0% (29.1%–76.4%) of the daytime and 68.3% (55.4%–80.6%) of the nighttime global temperature variance. To assess the spatial response to each forcing, Martian surface temperature variations are simulated using the Mars Planetary Climate Model under variable surface albedo and TI scenarios. Simulations that incorporate surface property changes better reproduce observed spatial patterns, particularly during the daytime. Attribution using the optimal fingerprinting method shows that daytime warming can be explained primarily by surface albedo (0.52 K) and dust (0.24 K) changes, with TI exerting a slight cooling effect (−0.24 K). These findings emphasize the importance of correcting observational artifacts and highlight the roles of surface and atmospheric processes in recent Martian climate variability.