Distinct Roles of Surface Flux Changes in Driving Model Spread of Dynamic Sea‐Level Projections in Different Regions

Abstract Dynamic sea‐level change is a key process in shaping the pattern of future sea‐level rise. CMIP6 models predict a range of under 1% increase of per year. We analyze this CMIP6 spread into contributions from: (a) surface flux change and (b) model sensitivity to it . Specifically, we force the pre‐industrial simulation of an ocean model with space‐ and time‐varying diagnosed from different CMIP6 models (one at a time). The CMIP6 spread is thus decomposed into a flux‐driven spread and a residual; the latter is linked to model spread of . We improve upon previous studies by: (a) deriving the perturbed forcing ensemble using an ocean‐only setup and (b) comparing it with the CMIP6 ensemble for both variance and correlation. This reveals distinct roles of surface forcing in driving the CMIP6 spread in different regions. In the North Pacific, differences in windstress forcing primarily explain the CMIP6 spread, while in the North Atlantic, differences in model sensitivity are more important. For the latter region, although buoyancy forcing drives a spread there, it correlates poorly with the CMIP6 spread. In the Southern Ocean, differences in both surface forcing and model sensitivity are important for explaining the CMIP6 spread. The surface forcing affects the spread along 40°S via windstress and the spread around the Antarctic via buoyancy flux.