How Precipitation Timing Asymmetry Restructures Vegetation Phenology in Water‐Limited Ecosystems

Earth s Future 2026 Open access

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Authors: Jianwei Mao, Yu Zhang, Wei Yan, Yonglong Han, Shuai Wu, Jian Liu, Lin Han, Yonghui Wang, Xiaofei Ma
DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008429
Cited by: 1
References: 53

Abstract

Abstract A fundamental paradigm in global phenology posits that temperature serves as the universal initiator of vegetation growth. Here we demonstrate that this assumption fails catastrophically in water‐limited ecosystems, where precipitation timing—not amount—inverts the canonical hierarchy of climate controls. Integrating 22 years of Enhanced Vegetation Index data with four multi‐source hourly precipitation products across northwestern China's drylands, we reveal that regional spring onset advances at 2.2 days·decade −1 on average, yet the ultra‐arid Tarim Basin (

Fields of Study & Subjects

Remote Sensing in Agriculture Tree-ring climate responses Climate variability and models

Publication details

Journal / source
Earth s Future
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Volume
14
Issue
7
Publication date
1 July 2026
Language
EN