Projecting Compound Wind‐Rainfall Hazards From Tropical Cyclones in China Under Climate Change

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose significant compound wind‐rainfall hazards to coastal China, which are projected to intensify under a changing climate. This study employs simulations from a statistical‐dynamical TC model with bias‐corrected ensembles from CMIP6 projections to quantify the evolution of compound hazards from 1980 to 2100. Wind and rainfall fields are simulated using physically based models, while compound extremes are analyzed via peaks‐over‐threshold marginal distributions and copula‐based joint return periods. A northward shift in TC track density is detected, with an increase up to 155.8% in the Yellow Sea area by end‐century. The 100‐year return period wind speeds intensify with an average of 17.2%, and 24‐hr rainfall accumulations rise by 43%. TCs bring peak winds 1–4 hr before the heaviest rain at coastal areas; but the rain arrives first at inland areas and amplified by mountainous terrain. The joint return periods corresponding to historical 100‐year wind‐rain extremes will shorten significantly by a factor of 2–80, which is primarily attributed to higher TC frequency, amplified rainfall, and slower translation speeds. Compound events caused by TCs are becoming more intense, lasting longer over a broader season. Annual compound exposure increases by approximately 2.7‐fold by end‐century relative to the historical baseline, implying longer and more widespread concurrent hazards and motivating multi‐hazard early warning that accounts for the co‐occurrence of wind and rainfall.