Future Changes in the Atmospheric Water Cycle Over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP) atmospheric water cycle (TPAWC), involving moisture sources, transport, and sinks with the TP precipitation and evaporation, faces unclear changes under global warming. This study projects TPAWC changes under two Shared Socio‐economic Pathways scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) using Lagrangian moisture tracking. Results reveal significant TPAWC enhancement, particularly under SSP585. Strengthened moisture transport and evaporation from external moisture sources contribute precipitation trends of 1–4 to the TP's southern exorheic basins, accounting for over 60% of total precipitation increases. Enhanced TP evaporation contributes to precipitation increases in the TP's northeastern endorheic basins and drives 0.3–0.4 trends for external Yellow and Huaihe basins, representing approximately 40% of external Yellow River precipitation increases. These findings demonstrate that TPAWC intensification strengthens hydrological connections between the TP and surrounding basins, highlighting the importance of an atmosphere‐land perspective for projecting future water availability.