Landscape ecological risk assessment and driving factors in Guyi Basin cultural heritage sites: a multi-scenario simulation perspective

Abstract Assessing landscape ecological risk (LER) is vital for sustainability in ecologically fragile regions. However, LER in cultural heritage sites remains insufficiently explored. Using Guyi Basin as a case study, this study analyzes LER dynamics under land-use change and its driving factors. The PLUS model was applied to simulate land-use changes from 1990 to 2060 under three scenarios, while GeoDetector was used to identify key drivers of LER. Results show a marked expansion of construction land in urban areas and traditional villages and a continuous decline of cultivated land. LER exhibits an “internally high–externally low” pattern characterized by “high–high” and “low–low” clusters. The ecological protection scenario presents a significantly lower risk Interactions such as DEM∩population density exerted the strongest combined effect on LER, with natural factors showing greater influence than social factors. This study provides methodological insights and practical implications for LER management and sustainable development in cultural heritage sites.