Precision phenotyping of type 2 diabetes in Chinese populations using a variational autoencoder-informed tree model

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) exhibits clinical heterogeneity, yet most existing classification models are derived from European populations and face challenges in clinical application. Here, we evaluate the generalizability of a tree-like graph structure from Scottish data to 32,501 newly diagnosed T2D patients from a multi-center Chinese cohort comprising over 8.6 million individuals. We observe similar distribution between the Scottish and Chinese individuals in heart and kidney outcomes, but diabetic retinopathy varies across ancestries even within similar phenotypes. To capture T2D Chinese-specific heterogeneity, we apply a variational autoencoder (VAE) framework to identify key clinical features and construct a tree structure using the Discriminative Dimensionality Reduction Tree (DDRTree) algorithm. This Chinese tree model is validated in two independent external cohorts and revealed longitudinal phenotypic shifts trending toward higher-risk branches. Our findings emphasize the need for population-specific classification frameworks to advance precision diabetology through individualized risk prediction and specialized treatment guidelines. Here the authors report that some aspects of clinical heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes vary across populations. Using a deep-learning–based tree model built from over 32,000 patients, they document disease patterns and risks specific for the Chinese population, potentially enabling more precise prediction and personalized care.