The potential role of truck-hailing and operational efficiency improvement in China’s road freight decarbonization

Truck-hailing is an emerging business model that could potentially transform the road freight sector. As a new form of horizontal collaborative transport, it offers great potential to improve operational efficiency—an important yet underrepresented demand-side strategy in current transport decarbonization research. Drawing on a proprietary national truck-hailing dataset (N = 51,021) and an enhanced vehicle fleet model that incorporates operational factors, here we assess the potential carbon emission impacts of truck-hailing and operational efficiency improvements in China under multiple scenarios. Under medium projections, enhancements in load factor and reductions in empty running could cut China’s road freight emissions by 886-2203 Mt (9%-24%) in the near term (2020–2035) and 2504-3327 Mt (23%-31%) in the long term (2035–2060), compared to a business-as-usual pathway. However, capacity constraints of zero-emission vehicles may reduce these benefits, resulting in roughly 3% higher emissions in the near term and nearly 10% in the long term. This study quantifies the emission impacts of operational efficiency improvements and constraints in China’s fast-evolving road freight sector, finding logistics enhancement a viable strategy for the sector’s decarbonization.