The Silent Expansion of Fire Activity in Continental Tropical Asia shaped by natural and anthropogenic forces

While research has largely focused on boreal fires, here we show a significant increase in spring fire activity across continental tropical Asia between 2001 and 2020, characterized by two prominent hotspots. We further show that this upward trend in fire activity is driven by distinct regional mechanisms. In the Indian Peninsula hotspot, anthropogenic agricultural burning across expanding cropland has amplified fire activity. In contrast, the Indo-China Peninsula hotspot is dominated by wildfires linked to reduced precipitation driven by internal climate variability. Large ensemble climate simulations identify Pacific decadal variability as a key driver of this regional drying, beyond what can be explained by anthropogenic forcing alone. These findings highlight an overlooked increase in tropical fire activity and reveal distinct regional drivers shaping the overall upward fire trend across continental tropical Asia. Policymakers should account for these factors to design effective climate mitigation and fire risk management strategies for the region. This study shows a pronounced increase in spring fire activity across continental tropical Asia since 2001, driven by human activity and natural climate variability, with distinct regional drivers shaping the fire trends.