Context-specific life cycle emissions pathways for EU buildings and construction

The European Union aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030 relative to 1990 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Yet, translating these targets into pathways for buildings and construction is challenging across diverse national contexts. We model building stocks for the twenty-seven Member States of the European Union and evaluate 4096 life cycle emissions scenarios, considering national capacities. Here we show that, over 2020-2050, achieving these targets would require avoiding 8.53 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, approximately ten years of emissions at 2020 levels. Mostly relying on improving energy efficiency and material production would exceed national capacities by 2.72-billion-ton, 32 percent of the required reduction. A combined approach that also reduces per capita space demand, applies circularity measures, and uses bio‑based materials could achieve an additional 2.19 billion tons within national capacities. For each country, we identify the strategies that maximize projected reductions to inform policy design.