Scaling and Population Loss in Mexican Urban Centres

Abstract Despite its pervasive implications, many cities worldwide continue to expand in a fragmented, horizontal manner. We analyse urban growth dynamics in 69 Mexican metropolitan areas from 1990 to 2020 using census data, developing a model of urban form change based on population size, density, and spatial configuration. We employ a radial probability density function and the urban expansion factor to create a framework for comparing urban expansion over time and across different regions. Over the past three decades, Mexico’s urban population has nearly doubled. However, populations have shifted outward, resulting in a decline of 2.5 million residents in central areas. Our analysis shows that distances from the city centre have increased by 28% on average, driven by population losses in central zones combined with growth in peripheral regions.