Longitudinal evidence for decreasing statistical learning abilities across childhood

Abstract Statistical learning enables us to identify patterns in our environment and predict future events, thereby supporting a range of motor, cognitive, and linguistic skills. Despite its significance, the developmental trajectory of statistical learning has remained unclear due to a lack of comprehensive longitudinal studies. Cross-sectional research has hinted at enhanced statistical learning in children up to 11-13 years, followed by a decline into adulthood, yet definitive insights require a longitudinal approach. Our study addresses this gap by assessing statistical learning in the same participants at ages 7, 8, 11, and 14. Utilising linear mixed models and latent class analyses, we observe a decline in statistical learning with age, and find that higher executive functions—cognitive functions that underlie higher-order goal-directed behaviour—are associated with this decline. This study provides evidence that statistical learning is more effective in early childhood, offering insights into the developmental trajectory of this fundamental cognitive ability.