Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation

Abstract Understanding changes in precipitation is crucial for society and ecosystems 1,2 . Studies have documented the respective contributions of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability to precipitation trends 3,4 , yet discrepancies persist between observed and simulated patterns. In Northern Hemisphere winter, these mismatches are often attributed to unforced internal variability that dominates observed trends 5 . However, growing evidence also indicates that climate models underestimate the total response of precipitation to human forcings 6–8 . Here we show that the thermodynamic contribution is broadly reproduced by climate models, whereas the dynamic contribution can diverge more substantially. Our approach disentangles the anthropogenic forced thermodynamic and dynamic components from internal variability in winter precipitation trends (1950–2022) to investigate their contribution to the trend discrepancies. In the Mediterranean, the forced dynamic signal from model simulations explains only about 10% of the observed dynamic trend, making detection challenging. Under continued anthropogenic emissions, the projected circulation response intensifies and more closely resembles observed trend patterns. Although internal variability in the observed record may contribute to this similarity, the results indicate an uncertain yet potentially emerging role of dynamic response in shaping regional winter precipitation trends. A reliable representation of the forced large-scale circulation response in climate models remains key for increasing confidence in regional precipitation projections.