Selective classification with machine learning uncertainty estimates improves ACS prediction: a retrospective study in the prehospital setting

Accurate identification of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the prehospital setting is important for timely treatments that reduce damage to the compromised myocardium. Current machine learning approaches lack sufficient performance to safely rule-in or rule-out ACS. Our goal is to identify a method that bridges this gap. To do so, we retrospectively evaluate two promising approaches, an ensemble of gradient boosted decision trees (GBDT) and selective classification (SC) on consecutive patients transported by ambulance to the ED with chest pain and/or anginal equivalents. On the task of ACS classification with 23 prehospital covariates, we found the fusion of the two (GBDT+SC) improves the best reported sensitivity and specificity by 8% and 23% respectively. Accordingly, GBDT+SC is safer than current machine learning approaches to rule-in and rule-out of ACS in the prehospital setting.