Scenario analysis of HAZMAT transportation road traffic crashs on China’s highways based on AcciNet-RFs

Highway HAZMAT transportation road traffic crash scenario analysis is a complex and dynamic task. Conducting such analysis enables a systematic understanding of how crashes evolve during highway HAZMAT transportation. To address this, this paper proposes a novel scenario analysis method, AcciNet-RFs, specifically designed for modeling and analyzing highway HAZMAT transportation crash scenarios. The method is grounded in historical crash cases and integrates transportation tasks, relevant participants, and safety risk factors into structured task-based scenario networks, from which diverse crash scenarios can be systematically reconstructed. As an illustrative case, the 6.13 Wenling tank truck explosion in China is analyzed, and its crash scenario network diagram is developed. Finally, a risk assessment model is applied to calculate the risk values of tasks and crashes at multiple levels. The results demonstrate that AcciNet-RFs can effectively capture the complexity of crash processes in highway HAZMAT transportation, strengthen scenario-based risk assessment, and provide a foundation for advancing from risk assessment to risk management.