Cattle production drives agricultural energy intensity and greenhouse gas emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean

This study investigates how cattle production, energy intensity in agriculture, and environmental degradation (cattle-related CO2eq emissions) interact in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Panel VAR models on data from 12 countries between 2000 and 2018, the results show that cattle production Granger-causes both energy intensity and CO2eq emissions, and that energy intensity itself Granger-causes CO2eq emissions, indicating a clear, unidirectional causal chain. Impulse-response functions suggest that shocks to cattle production initially raise energy intensity and CO2eq emissions but eventually lead to reduced CO2eq emissions (at the end of the study period). Forecasts project rising cattle output, declining energy intensity, and a gradual decrease in CO2eq emissions, suggesting partial decoupling of productivity from environmental harm. Although energy efficiency gains offer mitigation potential, sustained growth in cattle production may offset these improvements without systemic change. These findings underscore the critical role of clean energy and sustainable intensification in cattle systems. The framework developed is applicable beyond LAC, offering insights for other regions facing similar challenges in balancing agricultural growth with environmental sustainability.