The impact of new quality productive forces on urban carbon emission performance in the Yangtze river economic belt of China

As a pivotal driver that facilitates the concentration of green innovation elements in key areas of energy conservation and emission reduction, new quality productive forces (NQPF) play a crucial role in carbon emission governance. Based on panel data from 108 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) spanning 2010 to 2022, this study employs a mediation effect model and a spatial Durbin model (SDM) to empirically examine the mechanisms through which NQPF influence carbon emission performance (CEP), measured by carbon emission intensity (CEI) and carbon emission efficiency (CEE), as well as their spatial spillover effects. The results reveal that NQPF significantly reduces CEI and enhances CEE, and these findings remain robust across multiple tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that NQPF affects urban CEP through two main pathways: green technological innovation and industrial structure rationalization. Furthermore, environmental regulation intensity plays a significant positive moderating role in both pathways. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inhibitory effect of NQPF on CEI is more pronounced in cities with lower levels of economic development, lower emission intensity, and in designated low-carbon pilot cities. In contrast, the positive effect of NQPF on improving CEE is more significant in cities with higher levels of economic development, higher emission intensity, and low-carbon pilot cities. Spatial effect analysis indicates that NQPF not only improves local CEP but also generates positive spillover effects on neighboring cities. This study provides both theoretical insights and practical implications for enhancing green technology innovation, promoting industrial structure optimization, and improving environmental regulation policies.