Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of multiple scales ecological security in Shanxi Province from the perspective of service, risk and health

Ecological security(ES) is pivotal to regional sustainable development, particularly under the high-quality development strategy for the Yellow River Basin. Current ES assessments often focus on single dimensions, failing to fully capture its systemic nature. As a typical resource-based province and a crucial ecological barrier within the Yellow River Basin, Shanxi Province exhibits both fragile ecological foundations and intense human development pressures. This study employs multi-source data from 2000 to 2023, including land use, temperature, and precipitation, to construct a three-dimensional “service-risk-health” evaluation framework. It systematically assesses the spatiotemporal evolution of ES at both grid and county scales. Indicators were selected from natural, social, and ecological dimensions, with geographic detectors employed for driving factor analysis. Findings reveal: (1)Shanxi’s ES exhibits an evolving trend of “service enhancement, risk intensification, and health degradation,” highlighting the tension between the system’s intrinsic state and external pressures; (2)The ES index exhibits an inverted N-shaped fluctuating upward trend, with a stable spatial pattern showing “high in the southeast, low in the northwest.” High-security zones are concentrated in the Taihang and Lüliang mountain ranges, while low-security zones are embedded in the central basin, highly coupled with urban agglomeration expansion; (3)The center of ecological security fluctuates slightly in the northwest of Qixian County, with its oscillating trajectory revealing the inherent volatility of ecological security in the central basin; (4)The driving mechanism exhibits “dual-core alternation and tri-polar steady state” characteristics. NDVI and the proportion of construction land act as “dual cores” alternately dominating ecological security evolution, forming a stable “tri-polar” driving system with population density. Factor interactions highlight the nonlinear coupling effects between natural processes and human activities. This study provides a generalizable multidimensional paradigm for ES assessment in resource-dependent regions and can support targeted ecological management across different zones within the Yellow River Basin.