Smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies among coffee farming household heads in the Kafa biosphere reserve, Ethiopia

Climate change poses a major threat to smallholder agriculture in ecologically sensitive regions like Ethiopia. This study assess climate trends and identifies the determinant that influence adoption of adaptation strategies among coffee-farming households in the Kafa Biosphere Reserve, Ethiopia. Data was gathered through household surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Climatic trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while a Multivariate Probit Model were used to evaluate factors driving four adaptation strategies: agronomic practices, soil and water conservation (SWC), livelihood diversification, and agroforestry. Results show a significant warming, especially in minimum and mean temperatures, with erratic rainfall. Agronomic practices were the most adopted strategy (23.1%), while 29.9% of households undertook no adaptation. The econometric analysis reveals that access to institutional resources, particularly access to credit, extension services, and early warning systems, are the key determinant factors that enable adoption. Conversely, forest dependency significantly reduces the likelihood of adopting nearly all strategies. Female-headed households are more likely to diversify livelihoods but less likely to adopt labor-intensive SWC. Farm size and agroecological zone (AEZ) also shape strategy choice. Moreover, significant complementarities exist between SWC and agroforestry. The study concludes that building climate resilience requires moving beyond the dissemination of technologies to actively strengthen institutional support, design gender-responsive programs, break forest-dependency traps through integrated livelihood approaches, and promote synergistic practice packages. These targeted interventions are essential for enhancing equitable adaptive capacity in smallholder systems.