Assessing future landslide susceptibility and risk escalations under changing LULC and climate conditions in the Western Ghats of Karnataka in India

The intensity and frequency of fatal landslides in Western Ghats of India are adversely influenced by human-induced land-use modifications and climate change. Understanding these factors are vital for effective disaster risk reduction strategy for coming days. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility and risk for the year 2050 by incorporating land-use/land-cover (LULC) and future rainfall patterns. The study integrates a Random Forest (RF)-based landslide susceptibility model with an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) rainfall projections, future LULC simulation using a Multilayer Perceptron-Cellular Automata (MLP-CA) framework. It further incorporates an exposure-based Landslide Risk Index (LRI) assessment under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The findings show a significant increase in rainfall intensity and urban development by 2050, resulting in an increased risk of landslides. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the very-high susceptibility class is projected to increase from 8.85% in 2024 to 13.25% by 2050, which is approximately 1980 km². In same period and SSP scenario, very-high risk area is expected to increase from 1.18% to 2.73%, which is about 697 km². The most affected areas lie along major transport corridors and densely populated areas of Uttara Kannada, Kodagu and Chikkamagaluru districts in Karnataka state. These results show the combined impact of LULC and climate change on landslides. The study provides crucial information for the development of climate-resilient land-use planning and disaster risk reduction strategies considering probable future scenarios in the Western Ghats region of India.