Linking electricity consumption-based urban development to air pollution and climatic variability in Isfahan, Iran

Air pollution represents a major environmental challenge in Iran’s industrial metropolitan areas, where urban development and climatic conditions interact in complex ways. This study investigates the short-run and long-run dynamics of major air pollutants, including PM 2.5 , NO 2 , SO 2 , and O 3 , in the metropolitan area of Isfahan using monthly data from 2020 to 2025 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Electricity consumption is employed as a proxy for the intensity of urban development and economic activity, alongside climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed. The results of the bounds cointegration test indicate that only PM 2.5 and O 3 exhibit a stable long-run equilibrium relationship with the explanatory variables, at the same time NO 2 and SO 2 are primarily driven by short-run dynamics and transitory shocks. Long-run estimates confirm the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for PM 2.5 , as higher electricity consumption is associated with lower particulate matter concentrations. In contrast, ozone displays a strong positive elasticity with respect to electricity consumption, highlighting the critical role of precursor emissions linked to energy use and industrial activities in ozone formation. Climatic factors further reveal that temperature intensifies PM 2.5 concentrations, whereas wind speed significantly contributes to reducing long-run ozone levels through atmospheric dispersion. These findings underscore the importance of targeted energy and emission control policies, particularly focusing on ozone precursors, along with urban climate adaptation strategies to improve air quality in semi-arid industrial cities.