Warming of the high-mountainous climate sensitive Jammu and Kashmir during the period 1980–2024

This study examines the long-term surface temperature variability across Jammu and Kashmir using ground-based observations and reanalysis data during 1980–2024. The region shows a clear but spatially heterogeneous warming, with the strongest annual mean temperature (T mean ) rise at mid-elevation stations such as Bhaderwah (+ 0.3 °C/dec) and weak or insignificant trends at lower elevations like Jammu (about − 0.1 °C/dec). Minimum temperature (T min ) shows the most rapid acceleration, by + 0.1 to 0.5 °C/dec at several mid-to-high elevation regions, whereas daytime maximum temperature (T max ) trends remain modest (about 0–0.2 °C/dec). These spatial and seasonal contrasts, along with enhanced warming at higher altitudes in specific seasons (e.g., pre-monsoon T min up to + 0.6 °C/dec), indicate the presence of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) in these mountainous regions. The annual T mean increases by 0.18 °C/km/dec and winter T max shows the strongest altitude dependence of 0.43 °C/km/dec, whereas T min exhibits no significant EDW across seasons. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that wintertime altitude-dependent temperature trends are statistically associated with albedo-related surface processes, whereas the annual and seasonal increases in Tmin are more closely associated with atmospheric moisture and longwave radiative conditions. Overall, the region has warmed by up to nearly 1 °C in last two decades at several high-altitude locations (e.g., Pahalgam and Gulmarg), highlighting the sensitivity of the Himalayan environment to ongoing climate change with severe implications for high-altitude hydrology, cryosphere stability, and regional climate resilience.