Demographic drivers of the far eastern leopard population recovery

Effective conservation of endangered large carnivores requires understanding demographic processes driving population recovery. We present the first comprehensive demographic analysis of the critically endangered Far Eastern leopard ( Panthera pardus orientalis ) in Land of the Leopard National Park, Russia, using 10 years (2014–2023) of camera-trap data. Using spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) and open-population Cormack–Jolly–Seber models, we estimated population density, abundance, apparent survival, recruitment, and reproductive parameters, and assessed their relative contributions to population growth. Density increased nearly threefold from 0.89 to 2.64 individuals per 100 km 2 , with an average annual growth rate (λ) of 1.12 (95% CI 1.1–1.15). Adult apparent survival was high (0.79–0.91) and showed the highest elasticity (62.4%) in λ, while fecundity contributed 4.7%. Mean observed litter size was 1.5, which declined significantly over the study period, and sigma (an indicator of home range size) contraction was concurrent with an increase in density, suggesting incipient density dependence as the population approaches the estimated carrying capacity within the protected area. These findings demonstrate that the population recovery has been driven primarily by high adult survival due to enhanced protection rather than increased reproductive output. Conservation priorities should include facilitating range expansion and cross-border collaboration to ensure long-term population stability.