Strong mismatch in climate change adaptation between intentions of private forest owners in Canada and institutional support

Abstract Private forests, covering 20% of the global forest area, play a crucial role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Yet, research on adaptation intentions among private forest owners remains limited. This study investigates the adaptation intentions of private forest owners in Canada, one of the world’s most forested countries, following the 2023 unprecedented wildfire season. Our findings reveal one of the highest levels of adaptation intention reported globally based on a comprehensive comparison of 179 covariates and an original Bayesian statistical analysis. We identify a mismatch between adaptation intentions and existing policy instruments: rather than traditional financial incentives, such as tax reductions or reimbursement schemes for forest operations, the most effective support involves providing detailed and locally relevant information on climate impacts, and technical assistance. These findings point to a substantial opportunity to leverage motivated private forest owners to establish a long-term social-ecological observatory and testing ground for adaptive forest management with global relevance.