Marine sedimentary evidence reveals East Asian Winter Monsoon forcing on Neolithic Cultural transitions in Central and Eastern China

Abstract The impact of climate variability, particularly the East Asian Winter Monsoon, on Neolithic societal trajectories remains uncertain in human–environment studies. Here, we present a high-resolution sea-surface temperature record, reconstructing Holocene East Asian Winter Monsoon variability and its linkages to Neolithic cultural transitions in Central and Eastern China. Millennial-scale East Asian Winter Monsoon variability was paced by the overarching orbital-scale trend in insolation and primarily driven by high-latitude ice-ocean-atmosphere dynamics, while centennial-scale fluctuations were synchronized with solar activity minima and North Atlantic cooling events. Abrupt East Asian Monsoon shift triggered agricultural stress both directly through cooling by winter monsoon intensification and indirectly by co-varying with intervals of summer monsoon weakening, leading to compound cold-dry conditions. Adaptive innovations, including diversified crops, centralized storage, and hybrid subsistence strategies enabled East Asian sedentary societies to avoid collapse, contrasting with contemporaneous monsoon-affected patterns of societal disintegration, and revealing a distinct resilience paradigm.