Anthropogenic global warming increases the risk of record-breaking extreme precipitation events in low-income countries

Abstract There is growing evidence that extreme precipitation intensifies as the climate warms, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented extreme precipitation events (UEPEs). Assessing the risks of these events requires integrating climate projections with socioeconomic factors that shape exposure and vulnerability. Using an integrative framework, we find that low-income countries face a disproportionately high probability of UEPEs—1.5 to 3.4 times greater than that of high-income nations. In many of these regions, the likelihood of UEPEs exceeds what is expected from thermodynamic increases alone. Using current gridded population as a proxy for exposure, we estimate 0.4 to 2.6 billion exposure incidents per decade in low- and lower-middle-income countries under 1.5 ∘ C to 4 ∘ C of warming. Combined with low Gross Domestic Product (GDP) levels, these results indicate that climate change disproportionately burdens low-income countries, increasing the risk of unprecedented heavy storms and their impacts on human systems and ecosystems.